Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $613,378$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.62 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{708,712.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(708,712.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,124$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(969 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,445.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.0)}}\) (asimptote \(46,445.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $163,377$ on 2020-08-27

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $404,102$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.37 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{385,251.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 98.8)}}\) (asimptote \(385,251.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,072$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(629 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,986.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 100.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,986.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,108$ on 2020-08-27

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,761,391$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,456,373.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 126.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,456,373.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $118,649$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,108.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(126,108.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $519,896$ on 2020-08-27

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $113,129$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{136,445.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 129.9)}}\) (asimptote \(136,445.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,791$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(104 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,167.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 125.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,167.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,817$ on 2020-08-27

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $111,219$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,050.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(143,050.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,471$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(998 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,047.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 77.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,047.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,546$ on 2020-08-27

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $581,995$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,027,412.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 158.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,027,412.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,467$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,259.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 141.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,259.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $145,747$ on 2020-08-27

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $380,292$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{638,213.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 157.4)}}\) (asimptote \(638,213.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,050$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(60.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $97,784$ on 2020-08-27

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,793$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(10.4 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,539.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 159.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,539.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $66$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(0.528 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $834$ on 2020-08-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Uruguay recovered 45%
Venezuela recovered 31%
Colombia recovered 14%
Brazil recovered 13%
Bolivia recovered 8%

Uruguay⮸

Population $3,473,730$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,551$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(350 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,248.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 124.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,248.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(10.5 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 75.0)}}\) (asimptote \(47.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $175$ on 2020-08-27

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,898$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,080.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 169.3)}}\) (asimptote \(100,080.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $358$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.82 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{800.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 155.3)}}\) (asimptote \(800.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,393$ on 2020-08-27