Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $613,378$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.62 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{708,712.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(708,712.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,124$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(969 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,445.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.0)}}\) (asimptote \(46,445.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $163,377$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $404,102$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.37 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{385,251.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 98.8)}}\) (asimptote \(385,251.5\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,072$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(629 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,986.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 100.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,986.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,108$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,761,391$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,456,373.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 126.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,456,373.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $118,649$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,108.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(126,108.9\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $519,896$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $113,129$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{136,445.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 129.9)}}\) (asimptote \(136,445.1\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,791$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(104 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,167.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 125.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,167.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $55,817$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $111,219$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,050.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(143,050.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,471$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(998 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,047.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 77.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,047.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,546$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $581,995$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,027,412.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 158.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,027,412.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $18,467$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,259.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 141.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,259.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $145,747$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $380,292$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{638,213.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 157.4)}}\) (asimptote \(638,213.4\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,050$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(60.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $97,784$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,793$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(10.4 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,539.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 159.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,539.0\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $66$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(0.528 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $834$ on 2020-08-27